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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd