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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still